Advertising Mail Future Prospects in Five Scenarios

The future of advertising mail—currently a critical product for the Postal Service’s bottom line—is uncertain.
Key external factors impacting future advertising mail volumes are: the national economy, the growth of Internet advertising, and the degree to which Internet advertising displaces advertising mail.
Despite the importance of external factors on advertising mail, the future of advertising mail is not predetermined.
Our white paper, Advertising Mail: Future Prospects in Five Scenarios, looks at the upcoming period from 2016 to 2025 and projects five plausible scenarios using three different external assumptions. Projected potential outcomes for Standard Mail volumes run the gamut, from 119 billion pieces to 53 billion pieces in 2025. This wide range is an indicator of both the great opportunity and the great risk to the Postal Service that is associated with advertising mail.

This analysis, based on work from RCF Economics and Financial Consultants, starts with 2015 data for the total advertising market, which is estimated at $190 billion by Pivotal Data. Of this, Standard Mail (most advertising mail is Standard Mail) had a 9 percent share, representing 80 billion pieces.

The scenarios project Standard Mail volumes and revenues from 2016 to 2025. 

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